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Millennials Blamed For Taking Down McDonald's McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) has struggled recently, and the Wall Street Journal thinks it has found someone to blame in millennials.
Millennials are the current group of young people coming of age in America. They are commonly identified as the source of major societal shifts, problems, and potential. It is a timehonored tradition to look to a society's latest crop of young adults as the crux of all important trends. A year ago, MCD reported up 1.6%, down 1.9%, down 1.9%, and net up 0.7% respectively. The chart below shows comparable sales changes, by region, on a quarterly basis. has been down three straight quarters and four out of the last six. despite heavy World Cup promotions. In the last quarterly report, McDonald's pointed to "ongoing broadbased http://www.monclerstore.co.uk/ challenges." However, the WSJ, in conjunction with fastfood research firm Technomic, think they have found at least one culprit in millennials, defined in this study as adults aged 19 to 37 (a wider range than I am used to seeing).
The key evidence is that a small sliver of this population, moncler uk those aged 19 to 21, have reported eating at McDonald's at least once a month at a rate of 12.9 percentage points less than at the beginning of 2011. Meanwhile, 19 to 21year olds have reported eating at "fastcasual" restaurants at a rate of 2.3 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2011. The rest of the millennials have remained flat over this time span in reporting eating at McDonald's at least once a month while increasing their rate at fastcasual establishments by 5.2%. It is clear that the 19 to 21year olds have little impact on the overall results based on this chart showing the net impact of the entire millennial population. Eating Patterns of Millennials
Source: WSJNote that the overall change for fastcasual is the same as that of the 22 to 37year olds. The overall change for MCD is up slightly over this time period despite the large plunge for 19 to 21year olds. In other words, it seems that the youngest of this millennial demographic have little impact on the overall eating patterns, especially for fastcasual. Moreover, there are significant periods over this timespan where McDonald's outperforms fastcasual. This outperformance ended at the beginning of 2013 as fastcasual made a strong surge in the year. Given that fastcasual trended downward along with MCD for two quarters, there is no reason to believe that a fundamental trend is underway. More data are needed to be sure these years are not just a fortuitous window in time. Having comparables with other fastfood chains would provide even better context.
The WSJ explains the trends by claiming "increasingly, younger diners are seeking out fresher, healthier food and chains that offer customizable menu options for little more than the price of a combo meal." Cited as key chains taking business from McDonald's are Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), once whollyowned by McDonald's; and Five Guys Holdings LLC, owner of Five Guys Burger and Fries. Five Guys serves such healthier choices as bacon cheeseburgers, bacon cheese dogs, and, well french fries cooked in pure, no cholesterol, peanut oil. This cooking style of course does not go over well with the seemingly increasing number of kids with peanut allergies, millenials included. This all begs the question as to what food choices are really being made. Even Chipotle offers burritos where you can choose to pack in 1000 calories or more in one sitting. Compare that to the 530 calories in a Big Mac.
The final problem I want to point out with this demographic study is that there is no notion of lifecycle change. The chart above is presumably a static view: at a given point in time, what did adults of a certain age prefer? What we also want to know is how those preferences changed over time by the SAME adults. In other words, do 19 to 21 yearolds go from preferring fastcasual to fast food over time? Why do we think 19 to 21year olds of today are indicative of future choices for the children that precede them or the older adults they will eventually become?

So, perhaps millennials are taking down moncler uk store McDonald's, but we are not provided with enough evidence to make a definitive conclusion.